An Input-Output/ System Dynamics Approach to Regional Ecological-Economic Modeling: An Application to the Restoration of the Seine Estuary, France
Authors: Mateo Cordier, Takuro Uehara, Bertrand Hamaide, Jeffrey Weih
Abstract: It is essential to coalesce an ecological system and an economic system into a single ecological-economic system in order to elicit effective policy implications. While various modeling techniques have been developed to investigate ecological-economic systems, there is still much room for improvement with regard to their reflection of complexity. For example, while environmentally extended Input-Output (I-O) models can capture a great number of components (e.g., industries and pollutants), they are not well suited for capturing the nonlinear dynamics that are typical in ecological processes. System dynamics, a computer-aided approach based on differential equations, enables the capture of nonlinear dynamics. Therefore, we develop a hybrid model which couples a system dynamics (SD) with an I-O table to capture the complex dynamics of an ecological-economic system. The I-O part captures an economic system while the SD side captures an ecological system and the interaction between both systems.
A Green Lewis Development Model
Authors: Guilherme de Olvieira, Gilberto Tadeu Lima
Abstract: We developed an environmental extension of a Lewis’s dual economy model, in which the interaction between environment and growth, in one of its several aspects, is explicitly modeled. The economy produces a single good through a Traditional and a Modern sector. The latter generates negative environmental externalities and is taxed by the government, which in turn invest all the resulting tax collection in an Environmental Research sector responsible for the pollution abatement. The model shows that the ecological dynamics can enlarge the size of a development trap, from which a developing economy, if left to the free play of its structural forces, may never escape. This new theoretical result is called an ecological development trap. In addition, as the environment is a state variable, maturity can be reached not only through a standard Big Push, but through what we call an Environmental Big Push.
Introduction to ecological econophysics for degrowth
Authors: Salvador Pueyo
Abstract: A socially benign degrowth demands a deep reorganization of economies, but complex systems are difficult to reorganize without unintended consequences. Such systems often display emergent properties, i.e. macroscopic features that cannot be trivially deduced from microscopic dynamics. Planning for radical changes demands tools to forecast the emergent properties that will result from different policy options. In particular, we want to degrow without triggering uncontrolled recessions, while increasing equality to compensate for the decreasing average consumption, and conserving the basic functionality of the economy. Since these features can be largely expressed as statistical distributions (of recession sizes, of individual income or resource consumption), they demand the kind of approach used in statistical physics, which links statistical distributions to their underlying mechanisms. Statistical physics has been applied to economics with the label of “econophysics”. We need a synthesis between the insights of econophysics and those of ecological economics, or an “ecological econophysics”.
Macroeconomic Sustainability Scenarios for Europe
Authors: Eckehard Rosenbaum
Abstract: Rational policy making requires that the consequences of different policy options are assessed comprehensively. Given the long-term impact of many environmental policies, such an assessment must take into account that the future is inherently uncertain. This uncertainty concerns not only assumptions about important variables such as population trends or energy prices, but the political process itself. Put differently, since there are reasons to suggest that available policy options and political framework conditions are interdependent, both must be analysed and formulated together. Against this background, the paper develops three possible scenarios for the European Union. These scenarios can be distinguished by different international contexts, which arguably have an impact on the scope and extent of environmental policies in the European Union. On this basis, the scenarios then identify compatible policy options and analyse their impacts for important socioeconomic and environmental variables using a macroeconometric model of the European Union.