The effects of changing patterns of growth, production, consumption, trade and energy use on CO2 emissions in Poland in 1995-2009
Authors: Jan Mizgajski
Abstract: The paper seeks to identify changes of patterns in growth, production, consumption, trade and energy use in Poland and to measure their effects on CO2 emissions in 1995-2009. The computations are based on structural decomposition analysis of environmentally extended input-output model. The scope of analyses covers a set of 35 sectors of the Polish economy, which are sources of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Emissions were analysed on a year-to-year basis, which enables to analyse the dynamic changes of the period of Polish transformation to market-based economy.
International spillover and rebound effects from increased energy efficiency in Germany
Authors: Karen Turner, Kim Swales, Simon Koesler
Abstract: The pollution/energy leakage literature raises the concern that policies implemented in one country, such as a carbon tax or tight energy restrictions, might simply result in the reallocation of energy use to other countries. This paper addresses these concerns in the context of policies to increase energy efficiency, rather than direct action to reduce energy use. Using a global CGE simulation model, we extend the analyses of ‘economy-wide’ rebound from the national focus of previous studies to incorporate international spill-over effects from trade in goods and services. Our focus is to investigate whether these effects have the potential to increase or reduce the overall (global) rebound of local energy efficiency improvements. In the case we consider, an increased energy efficiency in German production generates changes in comparative advantage that produce negative leakage effects, thereby actually rendering global rebound less than national rebound.
Consumption-based emissions and global decarbonization in 2020
Authors: Kirsten Wiebe, Christian Lutz
Abstract: Based on the World Energy Outlook New Policies and 450ppm scenarios the paper investigates the past and future development of EU28’s consumption based emissions. To this end two models need to be combined, a dynamic macro-econometric system of national input-output models with a detailed representation of the energy industry linked via bilateral trade and a multi-regional input-output accounting system. The former model is used for projecting the economic development, associated energy use and emissions of about 60 countries for the two scenarios. The latter model is used to combine input-output data with bilateral trade data in such a way that it is possible to allocate territorial emissions along global production chains to final consumption. After an increase until the late 2000’s, EU28 consumption-based emissions are expected to decrease over the next decades; more so if countries outside the EU decrease their emissions as well (450ppm versus New Policies scenario).
Hidden energy flows in Danish international trade: a long-run study of energy use under a consumption perspective
Authors: Sofia Henriques, Astrid Kander, Paul Sharp
Abstract: In this paper we investigate the historical levels of Danish energy use under a consumption perspective. We calculate the amounts of energy embodied in Danish international trade from 1870 to the present days. Denmark was a country with practically no fossil fuel reserves which developed through exports of agriculture goods. A plausible hypothesis is that Denmark was a net importer of energy, and that the energy embodied in fossil fuel energy-intensive imports (such as iron and steel) outweighed the energy embodied in her agriculture exports. However, Danish agriculture was particularly energy intensive needing vast amounts of coal and feed per unit of output, which can lead to the rejection of the initial hypothesis. The results of this study will also allow to understand the ecological flows embodied in the Anglo-Danish trade and the influence of different trade periods in Denmark´s energy intensity
Demand-side interventions for resource efficiency in the EU
Authors: Kate Scott, John Barrett
Abstract: Applying a consumption-perspective to resource use in the EU can increase the scale and scope for resource efficiency policy. Micro energy efficiency policies are not realising their full energy demand reduction potential due to rebound effects. Addressing resource demand across product supply chains opens up further avenues for cost-effective reduction strategies. This paper will identify additional demand-side policy intervention opportunities across product supply chains for energy demand reduction across the EU; quantify how much they can contribute to meeting energy and climate change targets; and suggest what policies would be most effective in changing behaviours to meet energy demand and emissions reduction targets.
The nexus of emissions and energy consumption in the transport sector and economic activity
Authors: Lidia Andres, Emilio Padilla
Abstract: The aim of this research is to study the trends and the causal relationship between emissions and energy consumption in the transport sector and the activity of the whole economy. In order to help the design of measures to reduce emissions and energy consumption in the transport sector without affecting economic activity, it is very important to elucidate the causality between these variables. In other words, it is necessary to answer to the question if it is possible to reduce emissions and energy consumption in the transport sector and, at the same time, to increase economic activity.
Addressing Northern overconsumption and its impacts in the global South
Authors: Marco Sakai
Abstract: Overconsumption is a problem that requires to be urgently addressed, especially in high-income countries. These nations, for example, house around 15% of the world’s population and account for 75% of global consumption expenditure. One of the greatest symptoms associated with this problem is global warming. Rapid absolute reductions in energy and material use must be achieved to avoid dangerous effects over time. This paper focuses on the case of CO2 emissions. Its objective is to quantify the trade-offs between achieving cuts in consumption-based emissions in wealthy countries and attaining economic benefits through international trade in developing economies. The analysis relies on Environmentally-Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output analysis. The findings reveal that curbing consumption in the North involves an important trade-off. While reducing Northern consumption can contribute to reduce emissions and free carbon space, they can also curtail the development opportunities available to the global South.
Assessment of Virtual Water Trade Flows embedded in paddy for Sustainable Use of Water Resources in India
Authors: Suparana Katyaini, Anamika Barua
Abstract: India is among the largest global water user. There is a concern over water security both at regional and national level. It is linked with food security, livelihood security and environmental sustainability. Virtual Water (VW) is water embedded in goods and services. It is at science policy interface; its rationale is ‘to distribute water scarcity’ through identifying unsustainable pattern of water use. The study aims to address research gap on inter-state virtual water trade (VWT) flows in India through determining ‘water savings’ and unsustainable patterns in movement of paddy during 1996-2005.
VWT concept encompasses ‘water footprints’ (WF) and ‘water savings’ (WS). It captures both direct and indirect impacts. There is a paradigm shift towards recognizing its importance. WS assessment reveals annual national WS in the movement of paddy during 1996-2005, except in 1999-2000 and 2001-02. Largest national WS was approximately 127.8 X 106 m3 in 2002-03.
Disaggregating agricultural water flows in the world
Authors: Ana Serrano, Rosa Duarte, Dabo Guan, Vicente Pinilla
Abstract: Water resources are growingly transferred embodied in products internationally traded. These water displacements involve global inequalities that need to be addressed by setting consumption and production responsibilities. Although Multi-Regional Input Output models are powerful tools to assess the interrelations among countries and sectors in global supply chains, the lack of sufficiently disaggregated sectorial data in the empirical applications may entail a notable drawback for assessing some regional problems. This is particularly important when studying water resources, since agriculture accounts for 70% of water consumption all over the world. Therefore, in this paper we will try to join bilateral trade data on agricultural products with WIOD multiregional tables. This will allow us to analyze water consumption trends between 1995 and 2009. Besides, we will use a Structural Decomposition Analysis that will divide the sample depending on the level of income of countries and will allow explaining the drivers of these trajectories.
Regional Material Flow Accounting: The Spanish Case
Authors: Sergio Sastre, Oscar Carpintero, Pedro Luis Lomas
Abstract: Within Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounting, the Physical Trade Balances have been widely acknowledged as a powerful tool to evaluate the allocation of environmental burdens through trade across nations. This article approaches this issue from a subnational perspective. The International (In) and Interregional (Ir) Physical Trade Balances (PTB) of the seventeen Spanish regions are calculated the period 1996-2010. Results show that: 1) interregional trade is as relevant as international trade in terms of the absolute physical exchanges. 2) The composition of the IrPTB and InPTB are qualitatively dissimilar. 3) Patterns of environmental burden shifting are also found at the regional scale. Our database covers only direct flows which may be conceived as a first step in the understanding of the subnational patterns of trade. Further debate and research must include estimates on indirect flows and/or raw material equivalents in order to complete the picture.
Looking at the supply chains from producer to consumer responsibility. (Water) Footprints at the micro and meso scale in Spain
Authors: Ignacio Cazcarro, Rosa Duarte, Julio Sánchez-chóliz
Abstract: The footprints of production and consumption have been widely computed and discussed in the literature of input-output (IO) with different treatment of responsibilities. Among the key issues to obtain coherent measures we find the questions of imports assumptions, levels of spatial aggregation, and the possibility of assigning, tracking and identifying responsibilities at intermediate sectoral or individual levels. In the past years, we have combined the information of a multiregional input-output model for the 17 Spanish regions (plus the regions of European Union and Rest of the World) with GIS and micro data to lower the spatial scale, especially in order to provide information to local municipalities. This leaded us to perform specific applications, such as the influence of regional consumption on localized areas of other regions. We show the very different distribution of impacts of domestic households, national and foreign tourism, being the foreign impacts particularly concentrated in space.
Learning from the material intensity of nickel
Authors: Barbara Reck, Thomas E. Graedel
Abstract: A country’s material requirements vary with its level of industrialization and development, with emerging economies showing higher material demand than mature economies. A key question is how emerging economies can achieve their goal of higher living standards for all without exhausting the resources of our planet. To answer this question it is helpful to understand the current and past material intensity of use for countries at different economic development stages. In this study we analyze the use of nickel for 52 countries for the period 1950-2010, data generated through a dynamic material flow analysis. Preliminary results show no clear pattern for nickel’s material intensity of use in industrialized countries, suggesting other drivers than just GDP. We identify substitution as a key influencing factor, particularly towards nickel-free stainless steels. In the material selection process such substitution effects reflect different consumer preferences in terms of performance, appearance and price.